August 29, 2025

Population Study Finds Vastly Increased ADHD Medication Prescribing is Associated With Declining Overall Risk Reduction Benefits

The Background: 

Randomized clinical trials have shown ADHD medications are effective in reducing core ADHD symptoms. Moreover, large observational studies indicate that these medications are associated with lower risks of real-world outcomes, including injuries, crime, transport crashes, suicide attempts, and unnatural-cause mortality. 

Sweden’s ADHD medication use has soared. From 2006 to 2020, children’s use rose almost fivefold, and adults' use more than tenfold. This places Sweden among the highest globally in ADHD prescriptions. 

Research indicates that rising prescription rates are due to changes in diagnostic criteria and their interpretation, parental perception, and greater awareness of ADHD, rather than an actual increase in its prevalence. 

Sweden has a single-payer health insurance system that covers virtually its entire population, as well as a system of national registers that link health care records to other population databases.  

The Study:

A research team based in Sweden used that data to explore how the impact of ADHD medication on self-harm, injuries, traffic crashes, and crime has evolved with the dramatic increase in ADHD prescription rates. The team hypothesized that effects would decrease as medications were prescribed to a broader group of patients, including those with fewer impairments and risky behaviors who might not derive as much benefit from pharmacotherapy. 

The team identified all individuals aged 4 to 64 who were prescribed ADHD medication and living in Sweden in the fifteen years from 2006 through 2020. From this base cohort, they selected four specific cohorts for self-harm, unintentional injury, traffic crashes, and crime, consisting of individuals who experienced at least one relevant event during the study period. 

They used a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to explore the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes. This approach allows individuals to serve as their own controls, accounting for confounders like genetics, socioeconomic status, or other constant characteristics during follow-up. 

A non-treatment period was defined as a gap of 30 days or more between two consecutive treatment periods. To examine the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes, the team divided follow-up time into consecutive periods for each individual. A new period began after a treatment switch. They estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the outcome event rates during medicated periods with non-medicated periods for the same individual. 

The team examined how ADHD medication outcomes varied with prescription prevalence across three periods: 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, during which ADHD medication use continuously increased. 

The overall cohort encompassed almost a quarter million ADHD medication users: just over 57,000 for 2006-2010, just over 127,000 for 2011-2015, and slightly over 200,000 for 2016-2020. 

The Results:

ADHD medication use was linked to significantly lower rates of all studied outcomes during the study period. However, as prescription rates increased five to tenfold in the population, the strongest association for reduction in self-harm was observed between 2006 to 2010 (23% reduction in incidence rate) and was slightly reduced (below 20%) in the two more recent periods, though this change was not statistically significant.  

On the other hand, there was a significant decreasing trend in the reduction of incidence rate ratios for unintentional injury, with a 13% reduction in incidence rate in 2006-2010 decreasing over the two more recent periods to half that amount, 7%. For traffic crashes, a 29% reduction in incidence rate significantly diminished by more than half, to 13%. For crime, a 27% reduction in incidence rate from medication use significantly declined to 16%. 

When considering methylphenidate prescriptions only, these effects were partially attenuated for crime. A 28% reduction in the incidence rate for crime in 2006-2010 dropped to 19% in the two most recent periods, but the trend was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences from the results in the larger cohort in any of the other categories.   

The Interpretation:

These outcomes were consistent with the team’s hypothesis. The researchers concluded, “While ADHD medications are consistently associated with reduced risk of serious real-world outcomes, the magnitude of these associations have decreased over time alongside rising prescription rates. This underscores the importance of continuously evaluating medication use in different patient populations.” 

Lin Li, David Coghill, Arvid Sjölander, Honghui Yao, Le Zhang, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Zheng Chang, “Increased Prescribing of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Medication and Real-World Outcomes Over Time,” JAMA Psychiatry (2025), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.1281.

Related posts

What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

With the growth of the Internet, we are flooded with information about attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from many sources, most of which aim to provide useful and compelling "facts" about the disorder.  But, for the cautious reader, separating fact from opinion can be difficult when writers have not spelled out how they have come to decide that the information they present is factual. 

My blog has several guidelines to reassure readers that the information they read about ADHD is up-to-date and dependable. They are as follows:

Nearly all the information presented is based on peer-reviewed publications in the scientific literature about ADHD. "Peer-reviewed" means that other scientists read the article and made suggestions for changes and approved that it was of sufficient quality for publication. I say "nearly all" because in some cases I've used books or other information published by colleagues who have a reputation for high-quality science.

When expressing certainty about putative facts, I am guided by the principles of evidence-based medicine, which recognizes that the degree to which we can be certain about the truth of scientific statements depends on several features of the scientific papers used to justify the statements, such as the number of studies available and the quality of the individual studies. For example, compare these two types of studies.  One study gives drug X to 10 ADHD patients and reported that 7 improved.  Another gave drug Y to 100 patients and a placebo to 100 other patients and used statistics to show that the rate of improvement was significantly greater in the drug-treated group. The second study is much better and much larger, so we should be more confident in its conclusions. The rules of evidence are fairly complex and can be viewed at the Oxford Center for Evidenced Based Medicine (OCEBM;http://www.cebm.net/).


The evidenced-based approach incorporates two types of information: a) the quality of the evidence and b) the magnitude of the treatment effect. The OCEBM levels of evidence quality are defined as follows (higher numbers are better:

  1. Mechanism-based reasoning.  For example, some data suggest that oxidative stress leads to ADHD, and we know that omega-3 fatty acids reduce oxidative stress. So there is a reasonable mechanism whereby omega-3 therapy might help ADHD people.
  2. Studies of one or a few people without a control group, or studies that compare treated patients to those that were not treated in the past.

Non-randomized, controlled studies.    In these studies, the treatment group is compared to a group that receives a placebo treatment, which is a fake treatment not expected to work.  

  1. Non-randomized means that the comparison might be confounded by having placed different types of patients in the treatment and control groups.
  2. A single randomized trial.  This type of study is not confounded.
  3. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials. This means that many randomized trials have been completed and someone has combined them to reach a more accurate conclusion.

It is possible to have high-quality evidence proving that a treatment works but the treatment might not work very well. So it is important to consider the magnitude of the treatment effect, also called the "effect size" by statisticians. For ADHD, it is easiest to think about ranking treatments on a ten-point scale. The stimulant medications have a quality rating of 5 and also have the strongest magnitude of effect, about 9 or 10.Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation 'works' with a quality rating of 5, but the score for the magnitude of the effect is only 2, so it doesn't work very well. We have to take into account patient or parent preferences, comorbid conditions, prior response to treatment, and other issues when choosing a treatment for a specific patient, but we can only use an evidence-based approach when deciding which treatments are well-supported as helpful for a disorder.

April 23, 2021

ADHD medication and risk of suicide

ADHD Medication and Risk of Suicide

A Chinese research team performed two types of meta-analyses to compare the risk of suicide for ADHD patients taking ADHD medication as opposed to those not taking medication.

The first type of meta-analysis combined six large population studies with a total of over 4.7 million participants. These were located on three continents - Europe, Asia, and North America - and more specifically Sweden, England, Taiwan, and the United States.

The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be about a quarter less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p = 0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). There were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications produced divergent outcomes. A meta-analysis of four population studies covering almost 900,000 individuals found stimulant medications to be associated with a 28 percent reduced risk of suicide. On the other hand, a meta-analysis of three studies with over 62,000 individuals found no significant difference in suicide risk for non-stimulant medications. The benefit, therefore, seems limited to stimulant medication.

The second type of meta-analysis combined three within-individual studies with over 3.9 million persons in the United States, China, and Sweden. The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be almost a third less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were again barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p =0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). Once again, there were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced the sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications once again produced divergent outcomes. Meta-analysis of the same three studies found a 25 percent reduced risk of suicide among those taking stimulant medications. But as in the population studies, a meta-analysis of two studies with over 3.9 million persons found no reduction in risk among those taking non-stimulant medications.

A further meta-analysis of two studies with 3.9 million persons found no reduction in suicide risk among persons taking ADHD medications for 90 days or less, "revealing the importance of duration and adherence to medication in all individuals prescribed stimulants for ADHD."

The authors concluded, "exposure to non-stimulants is not associated with a higher risk of suicide attempts. However, a lower risk of suicide attempts was observed for stimulant drugs. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the evidence of heterogeneity ..."

December 13, 2021

Unmedicated Adult ADHD Linked to Dementia in Population Study

Background:

Noting that “the association between adult ADHD and dementia risk remains a topic of interest because of inconsistent results,” an Israeli study team tracked 109,218 members of a nonprofit Israeli health maintenance organization born between 1933 and 1952 who entered the cohort on January 1, 2003, without an ADHD or dementia diagnosis and were followed up to February 28, 2020. 

Israeli law forbids nonprofit HMOs from turning anyone away based on demographic factors,  health conditions, or medication needs, thereby limiting sample selection bias.  

The estimated prevalence of dementia in this HMO, as diagnosed by geriatricians, neurologists, or psychiatrists, is 6.6%. This closely matches estimates in Western Europe (6.9%) and the United States (6.5%). 

Method:

The team considered, and adjusted for, numerous covariates: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, depression, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, migraine, mild cognitive impairment, psychostimulants. 

With these adjustments, individuals diagnosed with ADHD were almost three times as likely to be subsequently diagnosed with dementia as those without ADHD. Men with ADHD were two and a half times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia, whereas women with ADHD were over three times more likely, than non-ADHD peers. 

More concerning still, persons with ADHD were 5.5 times more likely to be subsequently diagnosed with early onset dementia, as opposed to 2.4 times more likely to be diagnosed with late onset dementia. 

On the other hand, the team found no significant difference in rates of dementia between individuals with ADHD who were being treated with stimulant medications and individuals without ADHD. Those with untreated ADHD had three times the rate of dementia. The team nevertheless cautioned, “Due to the underdiagnosis of dementia as well as bidirectional misdiagnosis, this association requires further study before causal inference is plausible.” 

Conclusions and Relevance:

This study reinforces existing evidence that adult ADHD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Notably, the increased risk was not observed in individuals receiving psychostimulant medication, however the mechanism behind this association is not clear.

These findings underscore the importance of reliable ADHD assessment and management in adulthood. They also highlight the need for further study into the link between stimulant medications and the decreased risk of dementia.

 

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February 25, 2025

Computerized Cognitive Remediation Therapy for ADHD: A Meta-analysis

Executive functions are the mental processes that allow us to plan, adapt, and follow through. This encompasses working memory, inhibitory control, cognitive flexibility, goal-directed planning, and problem-solving. In people with ADHD, weaknesses in these areas compound the disorder's core symptoms, making it substantially harder to manage complex, real-world demands. 

Background:

Medication remains the frontline clinical response. Stimulant medications can meaningfully reduce both executive function deficits and ADHD symptoms, and are often combined with behavioral or psychological therapies for better overall outcomes.  

Medication, however, is not entirely without risk of side effects. These risks have spurred interest in new, non-pharmacological alternatives that target the same neural pathways. One of these new therapies is Computerized Cognitive Remediation Therapy (CCRT). This therapy uses digital programs delivered via computer, tablet, or smartphone that train attention, memory, and inhibitory control through structured cognitive exercises. A key feature of many CCRT platforms is adaptive difficulty: tasks adjust in real time to match the child’s current ability, keeping training both challenging and engaging. 

The Study: 

Despite this promise, the evidence base in younger populations has been limited. This meta-analysis pooled results from randomized controlled trials enrolling participants under 18 who either carried an ADHD diagnosis or scored above the threshold on a validated rating scale. Comparators included no treatment (waitlist), placebo (pharmacological or psychological), or treatment as usual. The primary outcomes (overall executive function and clinical symptom severity) were assessed via questionnaires and neuropsychological testing. Studies including participants with comorbid autism, tic disorders, epilepsy, or other psychiatric conditions were excluded. 

The findings were informative, but overall results were mixed. CCRT produced a small but statistically meaningful reduction in inattention symptoms across 13 studies (885 participants), with consistent results across individual trials and no evidence of publication bias. However, it had no detectable effect on hyperactivity and impulsivity (12 studies, 833 participants) or on total ADHD symptom burden (10 studies, 731 participants). 

The picture was more encouraging for executive function. Nine studies (500 participants) showed small overall improvements, with specific gains in working memory (454 participants), inhibitory control (428 participants), and planning (6 studies, 335 participants). Emotional control showed no significant change (5 studies, 265 participants), nor did cognitive flexibility (4 studies, 189 participants). 

The Take-Away: 

Taken together, these results are modest rather than transformative, but context matters. CCRT is low-cost, digitally scalable, and carries negligible side effects. For a population where medication often comes with a significant burden of adverse reactions, even small, reliable improvements in executive function represent a meaningful clinical option. 

The evidence positions CCRT not as a replacement for established treatments, but as a practical and well-tolerated addition to the therapeutic toolkit for children and adolescents with ADHD. 

August 5, 2026

French Cohort Study: Does Methylphenidate Increase Risk of Mania in Patients with Comorbid BP and ADHD?

The Background:

Methylphenidate is an effective treatment for ADHD in adults who also have bipolar disorder (BD), but it carries a potential risk of triggering manic episodes. Current guidelines therefore recommend using it only alongside mood-stabilizing medication. A new study using French nationwide claims data sought to test and extend those recommendations with greater statistical power than previous research. 

The Study:

The study built on findings by Viktorin et al. (2017), who observed that adults with BD not taking mood stabilizers had more than a sixfold higher risk of manic events (defined as hospitalization for mania or a new antimanic prescription) within six months of starting methylphenidate. Patients on mood-stabilizing treatment, by contrast, showed nearly half the baseline risk in the first three months. Those findings were limited, however, by small event counts (fewer than 61 manic episodes) and an effect that did not persist beyond the initial three-month window. 

To build on this, researchers drew on the French National Health Data System (which is a claims database covering more than 60 million people) spanning 2008 to 2024. The final sample included 6,022 adults with BD (56% women) who had started methylphenidate. Using a self-controlled design, the study compared each patient's rate of manic events in the six months before their first methylphenidate prescription with the rate in the six months after, effectively eliminating stable individual differences as a confound. 

Patients were classified as receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment if they had been dispensed at least two courses of specific antipsychotics (aripiprazole, olanzapine, or quetiapine) or mood stabilizers (lithium or valproate) in the nine months before starting methylphenidate, including at least one dispensation in the final six months of that window. 

The Results:

The results largely confirmed the earlier findings. Among the 2,745 patients not on mood stabilizers, the rate of inpatient mania diagnosis was 5.1 times higher in the first three months after starting methylphenidate, though this elevation fell to a non-significant level over the subsequent three months. Patients receiving continuous mood-stabilizing treatment showed no statistically significant change in mania risk across the full six-month post-initiation period. A formulation-specific pattern also emerged: patients without mood-stabilizing treatment had a 2.5-fold higher risk associated with extended-release methylphenidate, while no significant risk increase was seen with the immediate-release formulation or in treated patients regardless of formulation. 

The Conclusion:

The authors conclude that methylphenidate at doses below 30 mg does not appear to elevate manic relapse risk when prescribed alongside mood stabilizers. The elevated risk seen in untreated patients, particularly with extended-release formulations, must be interpreted cautiously, given limited statistical power and the likelihood that it partly reflects the natural fluctuation of manic relapse over time. The authors flag this as an inherent limitation of self-controlled survival analyses when studying drug-induced mania, where temporal trends in the underlying condition can be difficult to disentangle from treatment effects. 

A New ADHD Medication That Works Differently in the Brain

The FDA has approved a new once-daily pill called centanafadine (trade name SIMTRIYO®). Approved for adults and kids aged 6 and older (weighing at least 44 lbs / 20 kg), centanafadine is a new category of ADHD treatment that aims to give fast results with fewer of the downsides of traditional stimulants.

What Makes This Drug Different?

To understand why centanafadine is unique among medications for ADHD, it helps to look at how ADHD brain chemistry works:

  1. Norepinephrine: Powers focus, alertness, and attention span.
  1. Dopamine: Drives motivation, reward system, and decision-making.
  1. Serotonin: Regulates mood, anxiety levels, and emotional stability.

Stimulants like Ritalin and Adderall work mainly in the dopamine system.  Nonstimulants like atomoxetine, viloxazine, clonidine and guanfacine work mainly on the norepinephrine system.  Centanafadine is the first drug in a new class called NDSRIs (Norepinephrine, Dopamine, and Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors). We can describe its effects as follows:

  • Heavy boost to Norepinephrine: Delivers the strong focus and attention boost you need.
  • Moderate, smooth increase to Dopamine: Helps with motivation and brain executive function without triggering massive dopamine spikes that lead to addiction or heavy crashes.
  • Moderate boost to Serotonin: Helps smooth out mood swings and keeps anxiety under control.

What Did Clinical Trials Show?

The FDA approved centanafadine based on studies involving thousands of adults, teens, and children. Here are the key findings:

Centanafadine showed some improvement in ADHD symptoms within the very first week of taking it although a full effect takes about six weeks.

In adult trials, taking 200 mg or 400 mg daily led to significant improvements in real-world skills:

  • Time management and prioritizing tasks
  • Starting projects without procrastinating
  • Planning complex tasks and staying organized
  • Short-term working memory

In trials with children (ages 6–12) and teens (ages 13–17), centanafadine significantly reduced core ADHD symptoms like hyperactivity, impulsivity, and lack of focus compared to a placebo.

About 30% to 40% of adults with ADHD also suffer from anxiety. Traditional stimulants can make anxiety worse. In a trial specifically designed for adults dealing with both ADHD and anxiety, centanafadine effectively treated ADHD symptoms without firing up their anxiety, which might be due to its serotonin boost.

Does Centanafadine have Side Effects?

While Centanafadine was well-tolerated by most people in studies, like any prescription medication, it comes with important safety guidelines.

Prescribing Warnings:

  • Suicidal Thoughts in Children: In trials for kids aged 6 to 12, centanafadine was linked to a higher risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors compared to a sugar pill.  Although rare, parents and doctors should look for changes in mood or behavior, especially when starting or changing doses.
  • Stimulant Classification: Because it acts on central nervous system pathways, especially dopamine, centanafadine is classified as a CNS stimulant so might lead to addiction. While it has a much lower abuse risk than stimulants like Ritalin or Adderall, doctors should still evaluate patients for any history of substance abuse before prescribing.

Common Side Effects:

  • Kids & Teens: Decreased appetite, stomach ache, nausea, rash, and headache.
  • Adults: Dry mouth, difficulty sleeping (insomnia), decreased appetite, nausea, and headaches.

Other Warnings:

  • Heart & Blood Pressure: It can cause small increases in heart rate and blood pressure, so doctors will check these regularly.
  • Drug Interactions: It cannot be taken with certain antidepressants (MAOIs) due to dangerous blood pressure risks.

The Bottom Line

Overall, centanafadine is a new step forward in how we treat ADHD. Because it acts differently in the brain than traditional treatments, patients who struggle with stimulant-related anxiety or side effects may find it useful to explore with their doctor.