The Background:
Randomized clinical trials have shown ADHD medications are effective in reducing core ADHD symptoms. Moreover, large observational studies indicate that these medications are associated with lower risks of real-world outcomes, including injuries, crime, transport crashes, suicide attempts, and unnatural-cause mortality.
Sweden’s ADHD medication use has soared. From 2006 to 2020, children’s use rose almost fivefold, and adults' use more than tenfold. This places Sweden among the highest globally in ADHD prescriptions.
Research indicates that rising prescription rates are due to changes in diagnostic criteria and their interpretation, parental perception, and greater awareness of ADHD, rather than an actual increase in its prevalence.
Sweden has a single-payer health insurance system that covers virtually its entire population, as well as a system of national registers that link health care records to other population databases.
The Study:
A research team based in Sweden used that data to explore how the impact of ADHD medication on self-harm, injuries, traffic crashes, and crime has evolved with the dramatic increase in ADHD prescription rates. The team hypothesized that effects would decrease as medications were prescribed to a broader group of patients, including those with fewer impairments and risky behaviors who might not derive as much benefit from pharmacotherapy.
The team identified all individuals aged 4 to 64 who were prescribed ADHD medication and living in Sweden in the fifteen years from 2006 through 2020. From this base cohort, they selected four specific cohorts for self-harm, unintentional injury, traffic crashes, and crime, consisting of individuals who experienced at least one relevant event during the study period.
They used a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to explore the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes. This approach allows individuals to serve as their own controls, accounting for confounders like genetics, socioeconomic status, or other constant characteristics during follow-up.
A non-treatment period was defined as a gap of 30 days or more between two consecutive treatment periods. To examine the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes, the team divided follow-up time into consecutive periods for each individual. A new period began after a treatment switch. They estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the outcome event rates during medicated periods with non-medicated periods for the same individual.
The team examined how ADHD medication outcomes varied with prescription prevalence across three periods: 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, during which ADHD medication use continuously increased.
The overall cohort encompassed almost a quarter million ADHD medication users: just over 57,000 for 2006-2010, just over 127,000 for 2011-2015, and slightly over 200,000 for 2016-2020.
The Results:
ADHD medication use was linked to significantly lower rates of all studied outcomes during the study period. However, as prescription rates increased five to tenfold in the population, the strongest association for reduction in self-harm was observed between 2006 to 2010 (23% reduction in incidence rate) and was slightly reduced (below 20%) in the two more recent periods, though this change was not statistically significant.
On the other hand, there was a significant decreasing trend in the reduction of incidence rate ratios for unintentional injury, with a 13% reduction in incidence rate in 2006-2010 decreasing over the two more recent periods to half that amount, 7%. For traffic crashes, a 29% reduction in incidence rate significantly diminished by more than half, to 13%. For crime, a 27% reduction in incidence rate from medication use significantly declined to 16%.
When considering methylphenidate prescriptions only, these effects were partially attenuated for crime. A 28% reduction in the incidence rate for crime in 2006-2010 dropped to 19% in the two most recent periods, but the trend was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences from the results in the larger cohort in any of the other categories.
The Interpretation:
These outcomes were consistent with the team’s hypothesis. The researchers concluded, “While ADHD medications are consistently associated with reduced risk of serious real-world outcomes, the magnitude of these associations have decreased over time alongside rising prescription rates. This underscores the importance of continuously evaluating medication use in different patient populations.”
Lin Li, David Coghill, Arvid Sjölander, Honghui Yao, Le Zhang, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Zheng Chang, “Increased Prescribing of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Medication and Real-World Outcomes Over Time,” JAMA Psychiatry (2025), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.1281.
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